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U.S. Treasury yields have seemingly been moving in one direction lately (higher), with the 30-year Treasury yield temporarily breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. The move higher in yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields bearing the brunt of the move. There are several reasons we’re seeing higher yields, but rates are moving higher alongside a U.S. economy that has continued to outperform expectations, pushing recession expectations out further, and by the unwinding of rate cut expectations to be more in line with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “higher for longer” regime. And with the economic data continuing to show a more resilient economy than originally expected, we think Treasury yields are likely going to stay higher for longer as well. As such, we now project the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year between 4.25% and 4.75% (previously 3.25% and 3.75%).The (Surprisingly) Resilient EconomyComing into the year, and further outlined within our Midyear Outlook 2023: The Path Toward Stability, our baseline forecast was for the domestic economy to slide into recession in late 2023 as consumer demand cooled, especially for services. Moreover, the economic slowdown, we thought, would likely keep the Fed from…
After a difficult September for stocks, investors are surely ready to flip the calendar to October. That’s the month that kicks off the historically strong fourth quarter. Expecting this pattern to repeat this year is tricky given the overhang of a government shutdown, interest rates near 16-year highs, a market still trying to digest the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” message, and a consumer who is facing some stiff headwinds as excess savings are drawn down, student loan payments restart, and the effects of higher borrowing costs are increasingly felt. Amid that complicated backdrop, here we assess prospects for a fourth-quarter rally.The OpportunityThe fourth quarter has historically been the best for stocks, and it hasn’t been a particularly close race. As you can see in Figure 1, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain during the quarter of 4.2%, widely outpacing the underwhelming 0.6% average gain in the third quarter. Furthermore, the index has finished higher nearly 80% of the time in the fourth quarter. While we can’t say with certainty why the quarter’s performance historically sticks out, it does usually overlap with updated full-year company guidance for the following year, portfolio window dressing into year-end, overall holiday season optimism,…
In our latest staff spotlight, we chatted with Founding Partner & Wealth Advisor David S. Bahnick, CLU®, ChFC®, RICP® .Not only did we learn that Dave is a huge fan of one local sports team and appreciates a great concert, but also who he would meet from history if he had the chance. Learn more below!What was your first paying job? My first job was a paper route at the early age of 11.What inspires you? Seeing things grow! Whether it is children gaining life skills, athletes getting better at sports, growing a business, or seeing portfolios grow - its all exciting.What’s the best concert you’ve been to? Tedeschi Trucks at Red Rocks! The music was great, the weather was perfect and I was with my family. How can you top that?Are you a sports fan? Who are your favorite teams? That's an easy one - E A G L E S - Eagles!What show are you currently binge-watching? I am currently binging two shows - Suits and The Chosen.Which historical figure would you most like to meet? Three come to mind immediately - Jesus Christ, Abraham Lincoln, and Ben Franklin. You can read Dave's full bio here >
India has emerged as a compelling economic growth story and an increasingly attractive alternative to China within the emerging markets complex. A growing population with a robust and young workforce, significant infrastructure spending, and an ongoing digital transformation have been key catalysts to India’s outperformance over China. India has also benefited from the de-globalization trend as manufacturers move production away from China. While we may not go as far as officially calling India the new China, the economic and technical trends suggest the country may be set for a prolonged period of outperformance.Growing Population & Robust WorkforceAn impressive growth story has propelled India into a major powerhouse across the global economic landscape. Over the last two decades, the country has made impressive strides in reshaping its economy by leveraging its growing population and improving its outdated infrastructure. At the core of the growth story is the largest consumer base in the world based on its population size of nearly 1.5 billion people, according to United Nations (UN) estimates. This places India as the most populous country in the world, overtaking China for the first time since the data series started in 1950. Of course, poverty remains a key issue among…
In our latest staff spotlight we caught up with one of our newest team members, Client Relationship Associate Brianna Belzner. What did we learn? Well, Brianna has some serious sewing skills, an appreciation of other languages, and her favorite season is right around the corner. Read on for more! Do you have any hidden talents or hobbies? Sewing! I know it’s an odd hobby for a 20-something to enjoy, but it is so satisfying and rewarding when I finally finish a project. I would consider myself more of a novice when it comes to sewing, but I love learning this old textile art. My most recent project was a maroon cotton dress. What was your favorite subject in school? I was always a fan of my Math and Spanish classes - hence why I studied them both in depth in college. Both subjects just always came naturally to me. (History was a much different case.) I loved being that classmate everyone turned to for an explanation as to HOW and WHY an equation is solved in a certain manner. I would get so much joy seeing their wheels turning and when their face told me it clicked! What’s your favorite…
As a rollercoaster August for the markets draws to a close with what looks to be a monthly loss for the S&P 500 Index, we look at what clues seasonality data may give us for stock market performance during September and the rest of 2023. Turns out that while October may be the month that contains Halloween, September has been the scariest month for stocks looking back over the past five and 20-year periods, as well as all periods back to 1950. The good news is that in all those time periods stocks have also on average bounced back with a much stronger October.August finishing in the red will break a five-month winning streak for the S&P 500, the longest such run since we saw seven up months in a row from February to August 2021 that was broken itself by a scary September 4.8% pullback. These strong spring to summer upticks have gone some way to dispelling the “Sell in May and go away” stock market cliché (as we explored earlier this year here), but September has been doing its best to restore credibility to this adage with the last three Septembers all down, with an average decline of 6%…
In our latest Capital Planning Staff Spotlight, we had a great chat with Sheri Martellucci, our receptionist and administrative associate. While many of us know Sheri as the friendly face you first see when visiting our office, we certainly learned a few new things! Read below to find out more: What is a goal you are proud of accomplishing? For most of my life, I wasn’t a goal-setter or goal-getter. I simply wasn’t convinced of the life changing power that occurs when setting & achieving goals. Fast forward to a couple years ago when I was gifted a Fitbit & earbuds. I decided to put in 10k steps each day and set a goal to reach 365 days. After hitting the 365 goal, I decided to extend it to 1000 days. Winter, Spring, Summer or Fall, I love starting each day with a walk & praise music. I’m excited to share that barring any unforeseen or unfortunate life events, I’ll reach 1000 days before Thanksgiving this year. Hoping my experience might inspire you in some small way! What is your favorite holiday and why? My favorite holiday is without a doubt Thanksgiving. It is a day to be mindfully grateful…
The very essence of saving for retirement is to accumulate a nest egg sufficiently large enough to replace the retiree’s employment income and sustain a stable standard of living throughout retirement. If the prospective retiree doesn’t have enough saved up to maintain his/her lifestyle for the next several decades, it’s not yet time to retire. Yet a growing volume of research studying the actual spending habits of retirees is revealing that this traditional approach may not be entirely appropriate after all. Because as it turns out, retirees don’t actually maintain a stable lifestyle in retirement; instead, spending levels tend to decline (in real terms), as the retiree goes from the “Go-Go” early years of retirement, to the “Slow-Go” years, and eventually the “No-Go” years. In addition, not only does retirement spending slow in the later years, but the underlying composition of the retirement spending begins to shift as well as clients cross through these “age bands”, as spending on housing and entertainment activities fall significantly in the later years, while health care expenses are rising. Still, though, discretionary spending tends to fall by more than health care expenses rise – leading to an overall decrease in retiree spending as retirees proceed through…
In our most recent staff spotlight, we had a conversation with John Strasburger, CFP® a Wealth Advisor on our team at Capital Planning. During our discussion, we discovered that John holds a deep appreciation for one European country, loves everything baseball, and has some serious musical skills. Learn more here: What’s the best place you’ve traveled to?Switzerland is without a doubt the best place I've ever traveled to. My wife and I went there for our honeymoon and it was a trip we'll never forget. We even kept a journal of our experiences along the way. One of our main goals was to stay away from the touristy locations and instead immerse ourselves in the local culture. We visited Geneva, Grindelwald, Lauterbrunnen, Zermatt, and Lucerne, and discovered that some of the most memorable places were the quaint towns and villages we stumbled upon. Everywhere we went, we were amazed by the stunning landscapes and the friendliness of the locals. The views of the Swiss Alps were truly breathtaking, and we felt grateful to have had the opportunity to experience such natural beauty. We left Switzerland feeling refreshed and inspired, and we can't wait to go back and discover more of its…
The first half of 2023 was a meaningful period in many aspects after a difficult year in 2022. Global inflation figures finally started to come down, economic activity started showing early signs of slowing, and the Fed moderated its hiking steps while remaining hawkish. We believe most central banks are at the final stages of rate hikes or even at the beginning point of easing (e.g., China) as their focus moves from inflation to recession. That said, the timing and the steps they will take after the shift are greatly data dependent, leaving the market with many uncertainties. This, combined with the lagged impact of rate hikes which will become more apparent down the road, may keep market volatility at an elevated level with many twists and turns, and dispersion will likely continue across the asset classes, sectors, and quality of the assets.With this in mind, we remain constructive on alternative investments, which can provide a source of alpha that is uncorrelated to the traditional market, downside management, and diversification for investors’ portfolios. We, however, also want to note that greater dispersion of performance is expected among managers depending on their trading style, sector, or geographical focus, even within each…
Planning for an unpredictable future can feel overwhelming, with so many decisions to make it can be hard to know if you're going to have enough money to support yourself through retirement.
In this guide, experts from the Capital Planning Team have simplified the 10 steps you can take, so that you can live a life without worry, sfe in the knowledge that your financial future is secure.
Many people are curious to understand the potential tax benefits available to them. Questions such as “Is a 529 plan right for me and my goals?” are common, and at Capital Planning, we’ll be happy to guide you on this and any other questions you have.
We can work with you to conduct an analysis of funding needs, and provide recommendations as to investment allocation, ultimately helping you to select the right investments for your goals.
Book a discovery meeting today and speak with one of our advisors about independent financial planning with purpose, so you can focus on enjoying life.